FULTON COUNTY — Fulton County’s population remains below 53,000, according to a recent data dump.
U.S. Census Bureau estimates show that the southern Adirondacks county’s population dropped to 52,234 between July of 2022 and 2023 — a loss of less than 25 people.
Data estimates have bounced between 53,000 and 52,000 since the COVID-19 pandemic after shifting between 55,000 and 53,000 for the last two decades. Since 2020, the bureau has changed its methodology in making projections.
“In terms of the census, I don't think that's really a major change,” said Fulton County Administrator Jon Stead. “If we were to get to below 50,000, I would certainly be concerned.”
Stead has taken the newly released data with a grain of salt, noting that the numbers appear too close to call. He noted that the new estimates are within the margin of error.
In the new batch, Fulton County easily remains more populous than neighboring Hamilton (5,082) and Montgomery (49,368) counties, and less populous than neighboring Saratoga (238,711) and Herkimer (59,484) counties.
Gloversville Supervisor Charles Potter, R-4th Ward, said that he’s picked up on trends while analyzing bureau data.
“We do have a bit of an older population, which is a given,” he said. “And in this type of inflationary period, I can tell you firsthand with a 2-year-old, the cost of diapers, food and medical care is pretty hellacious for having a child.”
Potter was referencing the county’s low birth rate. In the most recent data batch estimates, there have been 481 births and 757 deaths in the Land of 44 Lakes, and 253 people haved moved into the area. There have been 953 more births than deaths since 2020.
Overall, the U.S. birth rate fell nearly 23% between 2007 and 2022, failing to make up for each death. The so-called replacement rate is 2.1.
Declining birth rates and outmigration are believed to be a factor in public school districts across the country experiencing challenges in enrollment. The shortfall poses a long-term threat to district aid.
Between 2008 and 2023, enrollment in the Greater Johnstown and Gloversville Enlarged school districts plummeted, leading school officials to reconfigure building spaces and readjust resources.
“We are aware of the trends and that knowledge certainly helps frame our long-term planning efforts,” said GESD Superintendent David Halloran said.
Beyond Gloversville, GESD covers parts of the towns of Johnstown, Caroga and Mayfield, and the entirety of Bleecker.
In the surrounding city, Gloversville’s population has shrunk from 23,329 to 14,932 from 1940 to 2022. This shift is due, in part, to the decline of the once-world-renowned leatherstocking industry.
Based on anecdotal experience, Gloversville Mayor Vincent DeSantis is convinced the city has grown recently. The mayor hand delivers welcome packets to new homeowners in the city.
“There are a lot of them and I see a lot of people delivering them that are from out of the area,” DeSantis said. “Some are even from out of state and some have just found Gloversville, thought it was a nice place to live and bought a house here.”
With help from the Downtown Revitalization Initiative, brownfield clean-up projects and property disposition, the mayor hopes the city’s population will eventually reach 20,000 again, but he doesn’t expect the boost will ever occur within his term. He doesn’t plan to run again in 2025.
The Glove Cities lie at the core of efforts to increase Fulton County’s population base, Potter said.
“We're all trying to move the area forward in positive growth,” Potter said. “I just think that — by producing perhaps a little bit more value housing — you entice young couples who just got married or professionals. It’s a winning formula, for sure.”
With state mandates and increasing costs, officials in Johnstown have been tasked with exploring ways to generate tourism and economic development in order to bolster the county’s limited tax-revenue kitty. Last fall, former Board of Supervisors Chairman Scott Horton warned lawmakers that the county would continue to face fiscal challenges without new revenue.