My name is Adam, and I’m an Oscars junkie.
In years where I had a much higher proportion of free time, I’d make it a mission to try and see every film and performance nominated in a major category. I don’t always get close to that these days, but that doesn’t stop me from trying to read the tea leaves heading up to Oscar night.
So, here are my predictions for who takes home the honors at the 96th Academy Awards.
I’ll stick to the “big” categories — Best Picture, Best Director, the acting and screenplay awards, et al — plus a few select categories, with my predictions both for who will win and who should win.
BEST PICTURE
The nominees: “American Fiction,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Barbie,” “The Holdovers,” “Killers of a Flower Moon,” “Maestro,” “Oppenheimer,” “Past Lives,” “Poor Things,” “The Zone of Interest”
The breakdown: In many years the Best Picture race has its peaks and valleys. Certain movies start off as favorites, only to see fatigue set in. That’s not happened with “Oppenheimer.” Both a box-office success story and a critical darling, a feat of technical filmmaking and sensational performance, it ticks every box. It ticks the biggest one Sunday night.
Will win: “Oppenheimer”
Should win: “Oppenheimer”
BEST DIRECTOR
The nominees: Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”; Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”; Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”; Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”
The breakdown: How fitting is it that Scorsese, who for ages occupied the throne of Best Director Never To Win An Oscar until his win for “The Departed,” is nominated in this category alongside Nolan, who has proven a worthy successor to that title over the past two decades. This has the distinction of being both a quasi-lifetime achievement award — no, it doesn’t make up for the lack of love shown to “The Dark Knight” — and a genuinely deserved win.
Will win: Nolan
Should win: Nolan
BEST ACTOR
The nominees: Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”; Colman Domingo, “Rustin”; Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”; Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”; Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
The breakdown: With three nominations this year — for acting, writing and producing — Cooper now has a dozen Oscar nods and no wins. Somehow, this is only the second nomination for Giamatti — and first since 2006’s “Cinderella Man” — and the first each for Murphy, Domingo and Wright. Murphy, the beating heart of “Oppenheimer” as its brilliant and conflicted title character, is an overwhelming favorite here.
Will win: Murphy
Should win: Murphy
BEST ACTRESS
The nominees: Annette Bening, “Nyad”; Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Sandra Huller, “Anatomy of a Fall”; Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”; Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
The breakdown: Some history in this category, as Gladstone — already the first Native American to win the Golden Globe for best actress in a drama — is the first Native American to be nominated in this category. She’s up against three Academy favorites in Stone, Mulligan and Bening — 12 Oscar nominations among them — and Huller, who earned plaudits for both this role and her part in “Anatomy of a Fall.”
Will win: Huller
Should win: Gladstone
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The nominees: Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”; Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”; Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”; Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
The breakdown: Some serious, serious star power in this category, but — apologies to Gosling fans out there — this may be the single biggest slam-dunk category of the night. Downey’s performance as Lewis Strauss in “Oppenheimer” is an absolute masterwork.
Will win: Downey
Should win: Downey
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The nominees: Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”; Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”; America Ferrera, “Barbie”; Jodie Foster, “Nyad”; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
The breakdown: It seems utterly wild that no actor from an Alexander Payne-directed film has ever won an Academy Award, as the likes of “Sideways,” “The Descendants,” “About Schmidt” and “Nebraska” have featured some of the best comedy/drama performances of the past 25 years. Randolph has owned this awards season, and a sweep seems likely.
Will win: Randolph
Should win: Randolph
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The nominees: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, “Anatomy of a Fall”; David Hemingson, “The Holdovers”; Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, “Maestro”; Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik, “May December”; Celine Song, “Past Lives”
The breakdown: The biggest awards season favorites are all in the adapted screenplay category this season (queue a rant on there being too many movies about preexisiting IP). A win by “Anatomy of a Fall” would put it into a select category of foreign-language films — sort of, the movie is in both French and English — to win this category.
Will win: “Anatomy of a Fall”
Should win: “The Holdovers”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The nominees: Cord Jefferson, “American Fiction”; Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, “Barbie”; Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
The breakdown: One half of the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon is going to bring home a lot of trophies, but this category feels like the perfect spot to give “Barbie” and its incredible success a bit of recognition for something other than its soundtrack.
Will win: “Barbie”
Should win: “Oppenheimer”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The nominees: “The Boy and the Heron,” “Elemental,” “Nimona,” “Robot Dreams,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
The breakdown: “The Boy and the Heron,” directed by animation icon Hayao Miyazaki, has been the awards season darling, winning both the BAFTA and the Golden Globe for best animated film. I’ll instead use this space to wax poetic about “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” There are few movies in recent years where I have left the theater with my jaw completely dropped to the floor. This — and its predecessor, the Oscar-winning “Into the Spider-Verse” — was one of them.
Will win: “The Boy and the Heron”
Should win: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The nominees: “The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot”; “I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie”; “It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”; “Whazhazhe (A Song for My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon”; “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
The breakdown: I so very, very badly want “I’m Just Ken” to win here. We’ve had songs memed into Oscar contention before — “Blame Canada” from “South Park: Bigger, Longer and Uncut” ring a bell? — but they usually don’t win. Unfortunately, I don’t think it will here. The other nominated song from “Barbie,” “What Was I Made For?” seems destined to give Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell their second Oscar in three years. Also, a mention to Diane Warren, who received her FIFTEENTH Oscar nomination for “The Fire Inside,” but seems certain to yet again come home empty-handed.
Will win: “What Was I Made For?”
Should win: “I’m Just Ken”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The nominees: Edward Lachman, “El Conde”; Rodrigo Prieto, “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Matthew Libatique, “Maestro”; Hoyte van Hoytema, “Oppenheimer”; Robbie Ryan, “Poor Things”
The breakdown: For the past decade, van Hoytema has been Nolan’s cinematographer of choice, manning the lens on “Interstellar,” “Dunkirk” and “Tenet” before “Oppenheimer.” His use of IMAX cameras in “Oppenheimer” is something almost never seen before, using the large format to focus more on close-ups and character detail than massive action set pieces.
Will win: van Hoytema
Should win: van Hoytema